Current affairs - Putin and Russia's invasion of the Ukraine
As I start to draft this post (1st March 2022 at 05:30) the Russian invasion of the Ukraine continues - although not quite as swiftly as Putin probably wanted or expected. This is down to the stiff resistance of the Ukrainian people - but a resistance which, I fear, is bound to fail in the long run without more direct support from the West.
I have so far not made any comment on this horrendous situation. This because I have been both shocked and perplexed by what is happening. Having said that, I did, in a previous post, indicate that I was concerned about both the EU and NATO seemingly encouraging ex-soviet countries to seek membership of those Western organisations, and how I feared this was seriously angering Russia. I noted that the Ukraine was an independent country and that it should be free to follow whatever path it wanted - but that I felt encouraging it to look towards the West was not conducive to peace in the region. Sometimes, in such circumstances, what is wanted needs to be ignored for what is wisest. Russia’s invasion, and annexing of, the Crimea was a clear warning that Russia was not ‘happy’ - a warning which was ignored. Having said that, the invasion of the Ukraine by Russia is simply unacceptable and needs to be strongly resisted in as many ways as possible.
But what has led Putin to attack the Ukraine at this point in time? There are, I think, several reasons. I will try to outline what I think these are.
Firstly, as an ‘old’ KGB officer, I suspect it still rankles with him that those once Soviet Union regions are no longer under Russian control. He claims that the Ukraine is not a real country and was only created following the demise of the Soviet Union. This may be true to some extent - but that is beside the point. As far as I can tell the region has been known for a long time as Ukraine (or similar) - although as an integral part of the USSR. Also, the same can be said of Belarus - and he has not attacked it. He has not attacked Belarus because it remains under Russian influence and control (whether it’s peoples want this or not). So, it is clear his invasion of the Ukraine has nothing to do with it not being a ‘real’ country but everything to do with it not being under Russian control and influence. I sense, here, some degree of spite and revenge.
Secondly, I feel Putin had to make it clear that he was (literally) deadly serious that he was ‘unhappy’ about even the prospect of the Ukraine joining NATO. Perhaps he hoped that his threat (massing troops on the border) would result in either the Ukraine dropping all attempts to join NATO or NATO saying it would not admit the Ukraine. Having made his threat I figure he felt he had to go ahead with the invasion or appear weak. This, for me, is all about power in the Black Sea area. I do not believe that the West would ever attempt to invade Russia - and I feel sure that Putin is well aware of that. The whole complaint about the Ukraine maybe joining NATO is not really the issue. The issue is that Putin does not want to see Russia’s power in the area eroded even further than it has been - and all the better (for Russia) if he can reverse that recent trend.
Thirdly, Putin claims his support of the rebels in the eastern, disputed regions of the Ukraine, and his annexing of Crimea, is because he is protecting Russians living in those areas. This, I believe, is nonsense. Putin is only interested in Putin retaining power and control and I don’t believe he even cares about the Russian people in Russia (except, perhaps, for those who support him). I believe that Putin has never been ‘happy’ that Ukrainian independence reduced Russia’s access to the Black Sea - but he was prepared to accept that as long as the Ukraine remained aligned to Russia (as the previous Ukrainian government wanted). With the current Ukrainian government seeking ever closer ties to the West, and NATO membership, I suspect he sought to take the Crimea then the eastern regions of the Ukraine - and then link those two areas into a single block. This is clearly one of his aims with the ongoing invasion. This, if successful (which looks likely), will see Russia’s presence in the area greatly increased.
Fourth. I suspect that Putin had hoped that, one day, the Ukraine would elect (again) a government that aligned itself to Russia - but, if the Ukraine joined NATO and maybe the EU, then that would become less and less likely. I suspect that he decided that he had to invade and conquer the Ukraine, before this happened, so that he could install a Russian friendly puppet government (just like in Belarus). Maybe he will even try to absorb the Ukraine back into Russia - but a Russian friendly puppet government might well suffice. To be clear, he knew such a step would be impossible if the Ukraine became a NATO member as the Ukraine would be supported by Western troops if a NATO member: the invasion had to take place before that happened.
So, the above gives four reasons why Putin has invaded the Ukraine. There may be others. Putin is a bully and a megalomaniac and he needs to be stopped - and if he cannot be stopped then Russia needs to be totally isolated until Putin is no longer in office (when something more sane might replace him). I suspect that the Russian people will not be able to get rid of him (he will treat them as brutally as he feels necessary) - but perhaps some brave soldier will assassinate him? Personally, as soon as the invasion started, I would have admitted the Ukraine to NATO - and sent in troops from as many countries as were willing to do so. Not to invade Russia but to simply push the Russian troops back to their own border. I am, generally, not a supporter of armed conflict but sometimes, like with Hitler and now Russia, there are no alternatives.
Two sad results of all of this. Since the end of the Cold War I have thought that NATO should be disbanded (and certainly not expanded) - but I have come to see that this view was a mistake on my part. I did not recognise what a danger Russia under Putin was (maybe more so than during the Cold War) and I fear, under Putin, that it might be willing to try and take, for example, Poland and the Baltic countries back under it’s rule. We might need NATO to prevent that happening. I have also been strongly against nuclear weapons - but I now have to reconsider that, too. I fear that Putin is such a dangerous megalomaniac that he might be willing to use ICBMs against those he sees as his enemies - just to get rid of them. The danger of being wiped out himself might be needed to prevent that.
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