Scottish politics - Nicola Sturgeon's report card.

On Wednesday the 15th of February 2023, just after eleven in the morning, Nicola Sturgeon sent shock wave through Scottish and UK politics when she announced she was stepping down, after over eight years, as SNP leader and First Minister of Scotland. I have decided that it would be a good idea to take a look at her successes and her failures - along with a look at how I think the SNP and the independence movement is going to progress support for independence from this point onwards. The first thing to say is that my phone has presented me with many articles addressing this. I have deliberately not read any to avoid taking on board the thoughts of others (although I’ve not been able to avoid several TV programmes which also considered this topic).

On the negative side, she was unable to advance support for independence, with most polling indicating support the same as immediately after the 2014 referendum (and if Ashcroft’s latest poll was accurate then we’ve actually lost ground since then). There seemed to be a base support of around 45% which sometimes rose to 55% before dropping back down again. Sometimes that swing vote supported independence but Sturgeon was never able to hang on to it to provide a consistent level of support over 50% and it appeared that it was UK gaffs that sometimes provided us with that lead in the polls rather than anything the SNP or Sturgeon did or said. I must admit that, over the past few months, I was getting increasingly despondent about the lack of progress being made in increasing support for independence - and this in the face of the Westminster incompetence and disregard for Scotland being displayed by May, Johnson, Truss and now Sunak. I was also feeling increasingly despondent that there seemed to be more interest from Sturgeon in chasing personal goals, like the Gender Recognition Reform bill, rather than trying to persuade that 10%, which was swinging one way then the other, to switch permanently to supporting independence. I feel that Sturgeon had lost sight of the main aim of the SNP - winning independence which, for me, first meant winning over that section of the electorate. She had also become a bit of a Marmite figure with some loving her while others detested her. I have to admit that I grew so frustrated with the situation that I deliberately allowed my SNP membership to lapse at the end of November 2022 (while still intending to vote SNP and YES).
Although the SNP have achieved much there are also many policies which have not worked out as hoped. For example, although not as bad as the unionists make out, education standards would seem to have dropped a bit and the Cal-Mac ferries fiasco has been a disaster. Maybe the Westminster government have made similar mistakes with the likes of the Ajax tanks (not to mention Spain which ordered new trains too big to go through some of it’s tunnels) - but that is really no excuse for the mess Scotland has made of getting those ferries built and into service. The NHS is in a mess. Much of that is down to COVID but things were not going well before that. Much of that is down to Tory austerity - but the government in charge always gets the blame for such problems - and the NHS in Scotland is the Scottish government’s responsibility so it carries the can, if unfairly. There is only so much the Scottish government can do with a fixed amount of cash from Westminster but I feel the SNP have tried to do too much with very limited resources - and therefore failed to achieve in several aims and policies. I also feel that things like debating independence (early January) was something which only further reduced support. There was nothing wrong about this in principle but it struck me as rather insensitive to the needs of the Scottish people in the midst of the economic crisis and all the ongoing strikes - especially when there were no elections due for between one and two years. Another failure, I feel, was the failure to meet several targets. Setting high targets is all very well but then failing to meet them only made the Scottish government look incompetent. Far better, I’d say, would have been to state what was hoped to be achieved with the proviso that doing so would, in the short term, be very difficult along with why that was the case (the lack of funding from the UK treasury, for example). The record on drug deaths, seemingly the highest in Europe, was also an issue which made the Sturgeon led Scottish government look uncaring and incompetent. I feel that Sturgeon came to believe in her own myth and that she could achieve anything she wanted to - that, in other words, she came to believe in her own infallibility, which is not a good thing for anyone but even more dangerous for a politician.

On the plus side her politics are left of centre. This did not go down well with Tory Scots but it helped keep the Scottish Labour supporters, who had switched to the SNP under Salmond, backing the SNP. Scotland has voted left of centre for over seventy years so this helped ensure that a left of centre SNP won election after election. Also, although support for independence has not grown under her leadership, she was very much involved with Salmond on building that support to the 45% achieved at the 2014 referendum. She introduced many good, left of centre policies which helped mitigate the Tory drive to make life more difficult for everyone but the rich. For example, the steps to mitigate the Bedroom Tax, the Baby Boxes and the Child Payment Supplement.
She was very articulate and excellent at debating and immediately putting opponents in their place when they were unwise enough to challenge her. She was confident and able to clearly state her beliefs and aims. She presented an competent face to the country throughout the worst of the COVID pandemic - and certainly much more so than the rambling confusion coming out of Westminster. She was, without doubt, one of the best and strongest politicians in Scotland and the whole UK, over the past twenty years.

In summary, my report card for Nicola Sturgeon reads that she did very well but that she could, and should, have done better, especially with regard to promoting independence over the past six or so years.

What, in my view, is needed now?
Scottish Labour’s Anas Sawar is calling for ex Labour SNP voters to return to Labour now that Sturgeon has gone. That is only another example of his wooly thinking. Firstly, most of those he his referring to switched to the SNP under Salmond so switching back simply does not follow unless the new SNP leader is clearly more centrist or right wing than Salmond was. Secondly, the Labour Party has not changed. It may have been a bit more to the left under Corbyn but under Starmer it is much the same as Blair’s New Labour. I would also argue that the politics of the SNP is not really the important factor (although being left of centre helps). What matters is what an independent Scotland could become once freed from Westminster’s control and those on the left in Scotland should be able to see that the politics of the SNP, even if this swings a bit to the centre, does not remove the opportunity that independence would offer. An independent Scotland is very likely to vote for a left of centre government and it does not really matter if that is the SNP or a reborn Scottish Labour Party. The SNP needs to clearly show the potential advantages of independence. This, at times, may require pointing out the problems and failures of Westminster rule but, to avoid the accusation of only being able to complain and blame Westminster for all our woes, emphasis mainly needs to be on the advantages of independence with Westminster failures only used as a comparison.
It may well be that a Labour government in Westminster would be better for Scotland than the Tory government but it also has to be kept in mind that the UK, as a whole, is likely to swing back to the Tories after five to, at most, ten years - and all improvements under Labour could well be swept away as a result.
I feel that the SNP need to be making those points both clearly and often.

I also feel that the SNP needs to drop it’s insistence on rejoining the EU as full members - while keeping that open as an option. This is not just because that is my personal view but also from a practical point of view. One of the factors the unionists have used to keep that middle ground is the loss of easy trade between Scotland and rUK should an independent Scotland rejoin the EU. The bulk of our trade, in and out, is with rUK and after rejoining the EU this trade would become subject, in both directions, to tariffs which would increase the cost of both buying and selling. This would also create an obvious border between Scotland and the rest of the UK - and many do not like that idea.The EU might be a bigger potential market - but at the moment Scotland’s biggest market is with the rUK and planning to damage that is a potential mistake. Trade with rUK, as an EU member country, would still continue - but at a cost. This would not be an issue as long as Scotland did not rejoin the EU as full members as it’s my understanding that the EFTA countries are able to do their own trade deals without being restricted to the EU trade rules. I think the SNP should say that the citizens of an independent Scotland should be allowed, via a referendum, to choose the relationship with the EU that they’d like to see. This would greatly remove the unionist scare story about trade with rUK being damaged under independence. This fear, in that case, would not totally go away but it would become less of a definite barrier to winning support. It is possible that EFTA would not welcome us as a member country if our plan was to rejoin the EU as soon as we could after that but in that case it should be possible to make a separate deal with the EU similar to what the EFTA countries currently enjoy (along with, I accept, the restrictions that would come with that). In addition to that, and although the Labour Party is against rejoining the EU, a Westminster government run by the Labour Party might renegotiate the UK deal with the EU. That might resolve some of the problems with an independent Scotland rejoining the EU but that is not currently the situation and we have to plan going forward with what the current situation is.
In addition to that, a survey, carried out in the wake of the EU referendum, indicated that around a third of SNP supporters voted to leave the EU. I would guess that most of them, like my self, would vote for independence and accept rejoining the EU - but how many might vote against independence because not rejoining the EU is more important to them? The current SNP policy backs those in that group into a corner while having a further Scottish EU referendum, after independence, would at least provide them with a chance to argue against doing so.
My point with the above is that persuading at least some of that section of the electorate (that swings from No to Yes and back to NO again) to switch permanently to YES becomes more of a possibility.

In the short term I also feel that we should delay both the proposed National Care Service and the DRS, due to come into effect in August. Both look like good ideas but, especially in the current economic situation, don’t look to be the best option at this stage. Setting up the NCS could be very expensive and the money earmarked for that might, at this stage, be better spent on the NHS and other aspects like teacher’s wages. The DRS looks like it could increase costs for businesses already struggling, which would not be the case if we just waited a year until Westminster introduced it’s scheme.

So, who do we want as the new SNP leader and First Minister?
I would say we need someone confident and articulate who is also a good debater and able to respond quickly and clearly to tough questions. Someone left of centre would also be of help as would a strong leader who is also willing to listen to others. As of Friday 24th February three candidates have declared they are contenders; Humza Yousaf, Kate Forbes and Ash Regan - and there will be no others as nominations have now closed. All three have both positive and negative aspects but whichever one wins there will be two or three years to prove their ability to fill the roll and prove to the Scottish electorate that they are up to the job. One thing none of them have is the personality and profile that Sturgeon enjoyed - but the winner, as said, will have time to rise to the challenge.