Scottish politics - what now for the SNP and the independence movement?

 On Thursday 18th May the BBC held Question Time in Fort William. A few days later the National newspaper attacked Fiona Bruce for the way she described the recent woes of the SNP, but it does not take a genius to see that her description was pretty accurate - and, in truth, very much the same as described by senior SNP MP’s and MSP’s. This is just another example of why I gave up buying and reading the National: it is so biased and twisted in what it writes that I don’t see much difference between it and, say, the Daily Mail when it comes to reasonable reporting (it’s just pro independence as opposed to pro union).There can be no doubt that the past few months have been a bit of a nightmare for the SNP. At the same time, while opinion polls over the past few weeks have indicated a not surprising drop in support for the SNP there has been very little in the way of a drop in support for independence (maybe none at all - and maybe even an increase). This, for me, is not surprising, either. The support for independence does not depend upon what the SNP do or say but, instead, on the belief that independence is the only way forward for Scotland along with the opportunity it offers in building the type of country most of us would like to see.
At the same time it is currently only the SNP that can lead Scotland to that future so it is important that any loss in support for the party is halted and then reversed as quickly as possible. Support for the SNP is still higher than for the other parties - but small drops in support, here and there, could well mean the loss of seats. It is also important that support for independence is increased, over a consistent period of time, to over 50%. I personally think that at least 55% over about one year will be required to (perhaps) force the UK government to allow a section 30 order. Alternatively, a Labour UK government, if SNP help is required for it to get into office, might be persuaded to give the Scottish government the right to hold a referendum when it wants. Granting a section 30 order might be a step too far to demand but giving Holyrood the ability to run such a referendum might be a possibility - especially if it was agreed, say, that one could only be held at least ten years after the last one. This would allow the Scottish government to delay such a referendum until it was fairly confident of success. The above is why it is important for the SNP to recover any support recently lost as it will need as high a number of MP’s in Westminster as it can get to help force the Labour Party to negotiate with it and it will need to be the party in power at Holyrood to legislate for Indyref2. Given all it’s recent woes (of which there is no need to list) what, in my opinion, does the SNP need to do over the next few years to ensure the above?

1) I believe that the most important thing for the SNP, and the wider YES movement, is to promote a much more positive message compared to the last few years. Blaming Westminster for bad policies, and the blocking of Scottish parliament legislation, might be valid - but it also comes across as negative. There needs, for me, to be much more emphasis on what an independent Scotland could do and what an independent Scotland could look like. Although there is nothing to say that an independent Scotland would be permanently run by the SNP, it would make sense for the party, with all the financial levers available to it, to make clear what it would be looking to improve on - from, for example, the NHS (all aspects), dentistry, education, social justice and improved equality for everyone, transport, housing and other capital projects. Also, instead of complaining about Brexit it would be more positive to make clear how an independent Scotland could decide for itself on it’s relationships with rUK, the EU and the rest of the world - and how it could enable legislation without interference from others. The above would, I would argue, provide a positive vision for the future which only complaining about Westminster does not achieve.

2) Having just extolled the virtues of positive messaging I am now going to contradict myself and suggest the SNP relentlessly attacks the Labour Party. With the SNP’s recent troubles, and the recovery of the Labour Party south of the border, the SNP could well lose seats at both Westminster and Holyrood - unless it can be demonstrated how pointless voting Labour will be. While a Labour government at Westminster, even a right wing one under Starmer, will be an improvement over another Tory one, it is almost certainly still going to fail Scotland as regards resolving the many problems visited upon Scotland by Thatcher and not corrected since. Even if it is substantially better than the Tories (and it does make strides in helping Scotland recover from Thatcher’s economic vandalism) I fear there is still much that a Labour government will fail to address and fix, and it would most likely be voted back out of office after five years (ten at the most). That will see the Conservatives back into power and anything gained will only be lost again - and any plans for a federal UK left dead in the water before any real progress in that is made. Scotland needs no more promises, it needs a permanent left of centre government and, although this cannot be guaranteed, it is most likely that that can only be achieved with independence. In other words, vote Labour for groundhog day - vote SNP, and independence, for the possibility of a fairer and better Scotland.
To clarify this: As a socialist it has often been suggested to me that I should be arguing for a UK Labour government rather than using right wing nationalism to split up the UK. A valid argument - but one I am forced to reject. I would support a UK Labour victory if I had any hope that doing so would solve Scotland’s many problems (or even the UK’s many problems) but I’m afraid I have almost zero confidence that that would be the outcome. England, evidence would suggest, has a far more right wing attitude to politics than Scotland does (and that is fine - that is a valid choice). But the result of that is that the Labour Party has to move so far to the right to win a UK general election that it looks, to the Scottish electorate, more like a centralist Tory party than a socialist one. Such a Labour Party will, quite simply, be unable to bring about the changes that the people of Scotland are crying out for. It is also most unlikely that any Labour government, right or left wing, will win a second term - as the people of England gravitate back to a ‘born again’ Tory party. If a Labour government does win a second five years then that will only be because it has stuck to a right wing agenda - and that will not solve any of Scotland’s problems. In addition to that, any (small) progress made by a right wing Labour party is only likely to be reversed by the incoming Tories and Scotland will, once again, be subjected to Tory policies it rejects. I look forward to a UK Labour victory at the next general election - but one that makes very little progress in Scotland.
In recent years the Labour Party has talked about changing how the UK is organised and governed with even some talk about a federal UK. I would be willing to consider a federal UK but it would have to be one where each region and country has very extensive control of it’s own economy and how it’s income is spent. But, even if that was an option, I’m convinced it would not come about within the period of a Labour administration - even if that was ten years. There would be all sorts of committees, commissions and investigations - none of which would be completed before the Tory Party was back in power at Westminster, when the whole idea would be dropped like a hot potato.
So, socialist at heart or not, I am convinced that the only way forward for Scotland, to achieve the society most Scots want, is via independence. In many ways, breaking up the UK would be a sad move but the alternative is for Scotland to accept, unendingly, what it seems  a majority in England want, which is at odds with what it seems the majority in Scotland want - and that, quite simply, is no way for a union of equals to function. I say this because the population of England is so much greater than Scotland’s population to the extent that what England wants England gets.

3) Although it currently looks unlikely, I would also suggest that the SNP ending it’s power sharing agreement with the Green Party would reduce it’s potential loss of seats at both Westminster and Holyrood. This deal will not win the SNP any votes but it is likely to lose it votes and seats. The Green Party is seen by many as extreme - either in it’s policies or in the speed it wants change to be made. That is not to say the Green Party is wrong - but they are not going to win votes for either them or the SNP if jobs and livelihoods seem to be at risk. At the moment the threatened introduction of HMPA’s and the threatened ending of oil exploration is not welcomed on the west coast and east coast respectively. The First Minister may have promised no community will have an HMPA imposed on it and a ‘just transition’ away from oil jobs on the east coast is planned (not just chucking people and communities on the scrap heap as Thatcher did) - but promises are not sufficient to remove all the fears - and votes will be lost where fears remain. Even if both those current concerns are resolved, with more concrete promises and policy changes, it remains likely that other Green policies will come to the fore and different communities will fear what the outcome of those might be for them. The Green Party is a fine pressure group but in government they are able to apply undue influence on the SNP and that could well lead to the loss of votes and seats as described above.

In summary: The SNP is not THE independence movement, just a part of it. It is, however, important that it does well electorally as a good number of MP’s in Westminster might be required to persuade a UK Labour government to negotiate with the Scottish government. It is also vital that the SNP remains in power at Holyrood as that will be needed if a new independence referendum is to be called and run. Given the SNP’s recent problems I think it is vital that it spreads a more positive message about what an independent Scotland could achieve with less complaining about Westminster rule (justified or not). However, I also think that the SNP need to relentlessly attack the Labour Party, pointing out that under Starmer it has become just as right wing as it was under Blair. It also needs to be hammered home, time and time again, that a Labour government in Westminster is probably only going to last one election cycle (two at the most) and be replaced by another Tory administration - which would most likely reverse any improvements made by a Labour government and, once again, reduce the Scottish budget as part of a new austerity drive (only designed to boost the profits of the already rich). The only way to break this never ending cycle is via independence. Recovery of SNP support would, of course, be helped by getting those delayed ferries into service, getting the NHS waiting times vastly reduced, getting the police investigation into the party finances resolved (even if someone ends up going to jail for fraud) and the party being put on a more open and transparent footing along with forgetting about any legislation which might be seen as contentious. It remains to be seen if the SNP will take the steps required to rebuild it’s support or if it’s already too stuck in the mud to see where I believe it has recently gone wrong (under Sturgeon).