Scottish politics - an independence and SNP check point update (rant)

 (A serious forewarning to anyone who stumbles across this post (unless you are a masochist of some sort). This post is a rambling rant which I wrote purely for myself as a kind of checkpoint as to where I think the SNP and the overall independence movement currently stands. I wanted to provide a point I could look back on after the next general election, just to see how close my thinking was to what actually transpired. At the same time I decided to publish it just in case I later felt the need to say “I told you so!” to someone. I also have to hold my hand up and admit to this not being, even by my poor standard, well written - as I felt a bit of a rush to publish it before too much time had passed. So, if anyone decides to go ahead and read what follows then please be aware that you have been warned.)

Anyway, given recent events, I thought it was time I updated my thoughts on where the struggle for Scottish independence currently stands. The ‘recent events’ in question are;
1 The Rutherglen by-election (Scotland),
2 MP Dr Lisa Cameron defects from the SNP to the Conservative party,
3 The SNP annual conference,
4 The two recent by-elections in England, in Tamsworth and mid Bedfordshire.
Labour, given the results of all three by-elections, are certainly upbeat about winning power at Westminster at the next general election - and Scottish Labour appear confident that they will almost wipe the SNP off the political map, given the Rutherglen result. But I very much think, and hope, that any Scottish Labour euphoria is premature - for the following reasons.
While support for the SNP has fallen away, support for independence has not (and might actually have risen a bit). There is only one vehicle for independence and that is the SNP - so, if you want independence, then, at the general election, you have to vote SNP, even if you are pretty pissed off with their recent performance. That has a lot to do with the Rutherglen result - unhappy SNP supporters making their disgruntlement clear by not going out to vote. It’s maybe the case that Scottish Labour are on road to recovery but it looked to me more like the SNP voters decided not to vote and instead give the SNP a much needed, and deserved, slap on the face.
What are the SNP voters so unhappy about?
1 - Some SNP voters might have sought ‘revenge’ on the SNP for selecting Margaret Ferrier last time round, forcing them to vote again before the next general election. I am not, here, just repeating what Humza Yousaf claimed after the result. In an email to a friend, several months ago, I predicted the SNP would not win Rutherglen and that one factor in this might well be that the SNP had selected Margaret Ferrier and that it might pay a price for this. This will no longer be an immediate cause of anger by the time of the next general election.
2 - The ongoing investigation into the SNP’s missing thousands. This looks like either a crime or incompetence. Hopefully the investigation will have been completed by the time the general election comes around - and will have started to be forgotten about (especially if a crime and not incompetence).
3 - Although the ferry fiasco does not directly affect the residents of Rutherglen, the issue strongly suggests an incredible level of incompetence in the SNP Scottish government. It would help a lot if at least one of those ferries, the Glen Sannox, was in service before the next general election. The reasons for giving Ferguson’s the contract for those two ferries cannot be argued against (keeping ship building jobs on the lower Clyde) but everything else around this project has been a total disaster and an embarrassment for the SNP.
4 - It has seemed, over the past several years (under Sturgeon), that the SNP had stopped listening to the Scottish public and it’s needs. It had started to seem to many that Sturgeon did not listen to what SNP members were saying never mind the general public (hence some members leaving to form Alba). It had also seemed to many, including myself, that Sturgeon had forgotten about trying to grow support for independence while chasing her own vanity agenda with things like the Gender Recognition Bill, Deposit Return Scheme and Highly Protected Marine Areas - none of which helped the public cope with the current economic issues.
5 - It’s my view, and I know I’m not alone in this, that over the past few years the SNP have focused more on attacking Westminster and trying to appear more progressive than Westminster (the three bills, for example, mentioned above) rather than promoting the benefits of independence. Pointing out Westminster’s failures and faults is all very well, and not totally unwarranted, but doing ONLY that just appears negative and fails to win any new recruits to the struggle while, perhaps, losing some. It could also be argued that at least two of the above mentioned bills were only brought forward to instigate a fight with Westminster - and make it look like Westminster was deliberately blocking Holyrood for no good reason. I would argue that this negative approach has also lost the SNP some support. Maybe not enough to turn large numbers away from backing independence but maybe enough to add to the numbers of those who decided not to vote in Rutherglen a couple of weeks ago?
So, there we have a number of issues that could well, but not definitely, account for the SNP’s thumping in Rutherglen, which could well be out down to disillusionment with the SNP’s performance under the last couple of years of Nicola Sturgeon reign as party leader and First Minister.

Have things changed under Humza Yousaf?
From my point of view there are both positives and negatives from Humza Yousaf’s first few months leadership and the SNP conference.The negatives first.
1) It seems certain that the Bute House Agreement with the Greens is going to continue. As far as I’m concerned this is a serious mistake. It does not matter if the Greens are extremists, as Fergus Ewing claims, or not - but they are seen by many in that light. It is seen that they are the tail wagging the dog - and pushing the SNP into contentious policies. This agreement will not win the SNP any votes but I feel certain it will lose it at least some.
2) The new plan on achieving independence is pointless. Winning a majority of seats at the next general election will simply be ignored by Westminster unless there is a consistent support in Scotland for independence of over 50% - and when I say consistent then I mean for over a year. To be honest, I think Westminster will seek to ignore even that but continued pressure might eventually force it to buckle to Scottish public opinion - but that will require a consistent support from a majority of Scots for independence and not just winning the most seats or even over 50% of the seats.
3) The announcing of the council tax freeze was a misstep - especially after the agreement Yousaf had come to with COSLA about better communication between it and government. At the same time COSLA should have nothing to complain about in the long run if the freeze is fully funded as Yousaf claims it will be. It would have been better, however, if Humza Yousaf had said that, after negotiations with COSLA, he hoped to introduce a freeze for at least the coming year. It remains to be seen where Yousaf thinks he will find the money for this from.
The more positive aspects.
Many of the contentious issues have already been delayed or cancelled (the three policies mentioned above). There seems to be a greater willingness to join with other independence groups to provide a new impetus for the YES movement. There certainly seems to have been a more open willingness to listen to members views, unlike when Sturgeon was the leader. Yousaf seems to be swinging SNP policy back to where it should appeal to a greater number of voters than it has over the past few years, while still staying left of centre. Since the end of the SNP conference I have also read a couple of articles which seem to suggest that the SNP/Scottish government would be willing to negotiate on certain issues which, if granted, would strengthen devolution. This, I assume, would be if SNP support was not high enough to demand at least another referendum but high enough not to be ignored. Aspects I’d seek to strengthen would be as follows;
1 - Allow Scotland access to the EU single market. If this was good enough, and possible, for Northern Ireland then the same should apply to Scotland. This might have the added bonus of no longer making Northern Ireland different within the UK - which might help to resolve the Stormont impasse.
2 - Grant Holyrood more borrowing powers. Doing so might ensure that island ferries were replaced in a more timely fashion (before they sink) and, for example, allow the A9 to be dualled more quickly and a replacement for the Rest An Be Thankful to be built before parts of Argyle and Bute go bankrupt.
3 - Grant Scotland control over it’s immigration policy. England wants fewer arriving on it’s shores but Scotland needs to increase it’s population level. It surely cannot be beyond government to devise a scheme that both works and is reasonably secure?
4 - Have HMRC block the ability of people and businesses to move their tax affairs from Scotland to other areas of the UK (and maybe even the other way about for balance). This would allow the Scottish government to raise taxes, especially at the higher end, without fear that the wealthy will move their affairs south of the border to avoid those taxes. Scotland’s geography means that it costs a lot more for the Scottish government to run, for example, the NHS, Social Services and transport (including island ferries) than it costs in the rest of the UK. It is claimed that there is a dividend for being in the Union - but I’ve seen very little of this helping the Scottish government cope with the above issues. Higher taxation, at the higher end, might well be the only solution - as long as the greedy rich are not able to transfer their tax affairs to England.
5 - Grant Scotland the power to hold it’s own independence referendums. This might have to include a certain threshold being reached in opinion polls and a restriction in the frequency they can be held. But, again, this should not be beyond governments to agree on.
There might well be other issues that an SNP/Scottish government might wish to negotiate on - but the above would provide a good starting point (as long as the SNP vote does not collapse).   
As for Doctor Lisa Cameron’s defection to the Tories? This, as far as I’m concerned, is nothing but chaff which the unionists have tried to make a mountain out of. It strikes me that Lisa Cameron is nothing but an opportunist who sought the SNP nomination for Westminster while the SNP was riding high - but who then decided to swap sides when it looked like she was not going to be selected as an SNP candidate at the next general election. As for her claims of  a ‘toxic environment and bullying’? I cannot really say anything about that (as I wasn’t there) but I suspect this was more down to her being ignored by her SNP colleagues who are mostly left of centre while she, given she joined the Tory party, was to the right. I’m sure many of her colleagues at Westminster recognised this and decided, at least subconsciously,not to engage with her too much. I know that I have difficulty in relating to people I’m with when I know they are right wingers. Cameron’s defection is no loss to the SNP and the only down side is that her local party, as with Margaret Ferrier, selected her - which indicates bad judgment.


I will attempt to tie everything up. There has quite clearly been a vast improvement in the support for Labour across the whole of the UK. In England that has been at the expense of the Tory party but in Scotland at the expense of the SNP. But the story in Scotland is very different from the story south of the border in so far as support for independence remains around the 50% mark. That would indicate to me that the SNP, if it plays it’s cards right, has every chance of avoiding the major loss of seats, at both Westminster and Holyrood, predicted by Labour and some political pundits. It would seem likely, however, that Labour will make some degree of recovery even in Scotland. How can the SNP combat that? Personally, I’d make it clear, in any run-up to the next general election, that the SNP would back the Labour party in getting into office without any conditions (at first anyway). I’m not talking here about any sort of a deal or coalition (which Labour might not need, anyway), just support in becoming the next UK government. I’d also, however, make it clear that if negotiations towards at least strengthening devolution (see the items mentioned above, for example) had not started within, say, two years then that support would be withdrawn. If Labour ends up with a clear majority then that would count for nothing - but prior to the vote it would provide food for thought for the Scottish electorate. There are many desperate to see the end of Tory rule at Westminster - so desperate that they might switch back from the SNP to Labour to be sure of achieving this. The above would reduce the need to do this as SNP victories in Scotland would also help to ensure that Scotland was doing it’s bit to see the back of the Tories, and the election of a UK Labour government, while also possibly leading to the strengthening of the powers of the Scottish government.
To be clear, I also pray for a UK Labour government, even a right wing one led by Starmer, and the Tories kicked out of office - but give it five or ten years and it will, most likely, be Labour’s turn to be kicked out of office. Voting for Labour is, in the UK, a short term solution which will only be reversed a short time later. While it’s always possible for an independent Scotland to vote for a Scottish Tory party this is a lot less likely than the UK as a whole voting Tory. So, if we want a reasonably permanent, left wing Scotland then we first need independence - and that is what the SNP and the wider YES movement need to demonstrate to the people of Scotland more clearly than they have over the last four or five years. I’ve said it before but I say it again: If I thought, for even a second, that a left wing Labour government could get into power at Westminster and bring about major change, including transforming the UK into a federation, then I’d drop my support for Scottish independence and accept that alternative instead. But what do we have? We have a centrist Labour party which will clearly change nothing about the UK no matter how many parliamentary terms it survives for. If the Labour party was to the left, like Corbyn attempted to make it, then it would be most unlikely that the people of England would vote for it - but if they did then they’d be voting it out again five years later, long before it had managed to bring about any substantial change. A Starmer led Westminster government would, I’m sure, be better than another five years of Tory disaster - but not much better, and of very little, if any, benefit to Scotland.
I repeat an observation I’ve made before: You didn’t like Salmond, you didn’t like Sturgeon, you don’t like Yousaf and you don’t like the SNP or it’s policies? That’s all fine - but that is still no reason not to support independence. Following independence the SNP will not necessarily be in power after the first Scottish general election and your current dislikes simply do not matter. Independence is all about what Scotland could become not about previous or current party leaders or even current policies. It’s the future that counts, the possibilities, not the past.

However, if the recent events do mark the end of the SNP’s recent run of success and power then I predict a recovery in about, say, ten years - unless a Labour run Westminster government either fixes the UK’s many problems or converts the UK to a federal state. If that does not happen then the call for Scottish independence will only re-emerge. I think the latter is most likely as the Labour party have a Catch 22 problem and I repeat what I’ve said before, and above, because it is worth repeating: a centralist Labour party might stay in office for more than one parliamentary term but it will not be radical enough to bring about the changes in the UK that Scotland desires - while a radical Labour party is unlikely to get elected or, if it does, stay in office long enough to bring about the necessary changes. So, although a collapse in SNP support would be regrettable, as far as a quick solution is concerned, it will by no means be the end of the struggle. Of course, if a Labour government does introduce the required changes (to the UK constitution) then that will be acceptable to at least some (including myself). I do not seek independence for any racist idea of Scotland or nationalism but in the hope that Scotland can have the left of centre government it seeks on a reasonably permanent basis. I am, to be honest, using the idea of a nation called Scotland in the hope of achieving that outcome (which might seem a bit hypocritical - but whatever means works (outside of death and destruction)).


Stop press: As I was finishing off this post there has been a further ‘incident’ that needs commenting upon. Ash Regan (one if the candidates for SNP leadership to replace Nicola Sturgeon) has announced she has left the SNP and joined the Alba party. She has cited the recent lack of focus by the SNP on achieving independence as her reason for doing this. I feel she is being premature about this. I agree that Sturgeon lost her focus on independence but Humza Yousaf has clearly indicated a recognition of this along with a desire to re-focus on independence and an acceptance that all independence groups need to work together more closely than in the years since the 2014 referendum. This change will not happen overnight and will take time to develop. Given that, I suspect another case of sour grapes. Having come third in the SNP leadership contest she called on everyone to get behind Yousaf - but he failed to bring her back into government (at least Kate Forbes was offered a senior position which she rejected). Regan, if I remember correctly, was against the Bute House Agreement with the Green party and it might be this that she is objecting to. I feel that this deal is costing the SNP support, forcing it to concentrate more on Green policies rather than on independence. So if that is the basis of her disillusionment, and her deciding that enough is enough, then I fully understand this. Since Regan’s defection an SNP councillor has also defected to Alba - with reports of more such defections to come. While such defections might not be a direct threat to the independence movement they could well be an indirect threat and certainly a direct threat to the SNP. To prevent this trickle becoming a deluge I think that Yousaf has to listen even more closely and urgently to SNP members, and those who have already defected, to learn more about why this is happening and what needs to be changed to stop it. The indirect threat to the movement comes from the fact that Alba cannot replace the SNP in the short term. With strong support for independence already in place it will not take as long as it took the SNP to win power but we’re still, probably, talking about ten years before Alba could persuade a large enough number of Scots to vote for it. This will only further delay independence by at least that length of time. Those deserting the SNP for Alba need to keep this in mind - that while their disillusionment is understood, their defections could lead to fewer SNP seats at both Westminster and Holyrood and that this will delay any chance of independence by many years. Putting this another way: if the SNP fail to identify, and fix, what is leading to those defections then Alba could eventually become the main party of independence - but that will take quite a few years. Before that happens the independence vote will be split between the SNP and Alba - and that could mean no MP’s at Westminster and very few at Holyrood - and that would mean no chance of independence until there is only one major independence party again. Those defecting from the SNP to Alba need to understand that. I can understand why they are defecting - but anyone doing so might only help delay any chance of independence.