Scottish politics - the (deserved) demise of the SNP (another rant)

Foreword and forewarning: This post has grown into being another rambling rant about the SNP and Scottish independence - when it was originally intended as a fairly brief analysis looking at why the SNP’s standing in the opinion polls has collapsed in the way it has. Unfortunately, new factors came to light as I wrote - and things got a bit out of control as what I was writing grew to encompass this additional information. So, advance apologies.  

Anyone with an interest in Scottish politics will be well aware that the SNP is currently in a free fall situation as regards it’s standing in opinion polls. What follows is an attempt to understand why that has happened - with maybe a pointer as to what comes next and how to fix the problem (if it can be fixed). Firstly, a background as to what I think went wrong.

During August 2021 Scotland’s SNP government made a power sharing deal with the Scottish Greens. In my view a serious mistake which inexorably led to support for the SNP collapsing to the point where it will most likely lose many Westminster seats at the next general election (which has, since I started writing this, been announced as being on July 4th). The SNP’s current poll ratings indicate it might even lose power at Holyrood after the 2026 Scottish election. In my view the Bute House Agreement (BHA) was not needed as the SNP government could have continued, as in the previous parliament, by coming to an agreement with the Greens on an issue by issue basis. In my view the BHA provided the Greens, who have very few seats, far too much influence and control and which resulted in them becoming the ‘tail which wagged the dog’. In addition to that, it might well have been possible to do issue by issue deals with Scottish Labour. Scottish Labour leaders, prior to Anas Sarwar, had refused to do deals with the SNP government unless it dropped plans for a second independence referendum (IndyRef2) despite the fact that the SNP had won the previous Scottish elections on that policy. A despicable position to take up and which amounted to nothing less than blackmail. This, I believe, is what led Nicola Sturgeon into the disastrous Bute House Agreement: the need to get a budget passed every year which the blackmail of the opposition parties made difficult. However, Anas Sarwar had indicated that he would not continue with that blackmail, that he would work with the SNP/Scottish government on an issue by issue basis - but that he would not support IndyRef2. Now, I consider Anas Sarwar to be one of the most dishonest and disingenuous politicians that I’ve never listened to so we will never know if he would have been true to his word on that - but we might be about to find out over the next couple of years.
Then Sturgeon decided to resign (see below) and Humza Yousaf won the internal SNP election to become party leader (and First Minister) and he decided to continue with the BHA - until the Scottish government had to drop it’s carbon reduction targets for 2030 and paused gender treatment for young people until the findings of the Cass Report had been fully considered. Both of those led to outrage from the Greens with a threat that they would end the agreement (typical Greens stupidity, as far as I’m concerned). Humza Yousaf decided that he was no longer going to be manipulated by the Greens in this way: that he was not going to tolerate the Greens ending the agreement first - so he ended the agreement before the Greens could even debate the matter. However, he was a bit abrupt about this - and the Greens took the huff (as immature people often do). The Tories, under Douglas Ross, took advantage of this and tabled a motion of no confidence in Yousaf - which the Greens made clear they would support (continuing their huff). Yousaf decided he had failed in his plan and announced he would resign as soon as the SNP elected a new leader and then First Minister. The Tories, at this point, dropped their ‘no confidence’ motion against Yousaf but Scottish Labour, by this time, had tabled a motion of ‘no confidence’ in the Scottish government, which went ahead and which could well have resulted in an early Holyrood election. This time the Greens decided they would not support this as they figured they’d still get more from an SNP government than from a Labour one. Only John Swinney put his name forward for SNP party leader and he was quickly appointed as such and was then confirmed, just a couple of days later, as the new First Minister of Scotland as the Greens, having already extracted their revenge on Yousaf, did not oppose this.

To be clear, I was one of the 30,000 who left the SNP towards the end of 2022 (I let my membership lapse). I had become totally disillusioned by the way Nicola Sturgeon was operating and leading the party and government. The final straw was the handling of the Gender Recognition Bill (GRB). This bill had cross party support but all opinion polls indicated that the public did not support or agree with it - but Sturgeon decided, as she did in all things, that she knew best and she pushed ahead without even trying to compromise with those who disagreed with her. It was not the policy which upset me (I can see both sides of the argument) but instead Sturgeon’s “I know better than everyone else” attitude that angered me. It was her pursuit of her own radical agenda, at the expense of persuading more people that independence was the best way forward, that upset me most and left me disillusioned (but see the addendum below). It has to be stated that Sturgeon took a similar approach to the Highly Protected Marine Areas and Deposit Return Scheme bills. There were very strong objections to both of those bills - but, once again, Sturgeon knew best and refused to listen to any of the concerns raised.

It only took a few days after Swinney became the SNP leader (and First Minister) for me to decide to rejoin the SNP. He confirmed that the agreement with the Greens was finished and that he’d operate as a minority government. To be clear, it’s not that I disagree with what the Greens seek to achieve - it’s that it looks like they want to achieve too much too quickly. That, for many people, looks like a loss of jobs, income and major changes in how their lives might have to be lived. They held up road improvement works when it wasn’t the roads but the vehicles using them that is the problem. In my view, the Greens are also politically naive. All of that loses votes. It looked like the Greens, as mentioned above, was the ‘tail wagging the dog’ and forcing the SNP into policies which ignored the major concerns of the population. That loses votes. Quite simply, the deal with the Greens has been a disaster for the SNP and the struggle for independence. I would argue that the BHA won the SNP no votes - but it has certainly lost it many. In addition to that, Swinney brought Kate Forbes back into government. I am no supporter of Forbes religious views, or moral stance on many issues, or her belief that women are subservient to men, but in all other ways she is a capable operator who I have every confidence in. I would not have rejoined the SNP if she had stood for party leader and won - but she is not the party leader and she has promised to fully partake in collective responsibility, which would mean her agreeing to back policies which might go against her personal beliefs.

The above provides a background, as I see it, to the current situation but where does all of that now leave the SNP? I believe John Swinney has made an excellent start in leading the SNP and Scottish government and bringing it back to the centre left of Scottish politics, where it needs to be to keep as many as possible supporting it. However, he probably does not have sufficient time to turn the tide before the general election comes around. At the same time, support for independence is still high so you never know. Even if the SNP get a thumping at the general election, which looks likely, I do believe that Swinney is well able to turn the tide by the time of the 2026 Holyrood election and, at least, lead the SNP back into minority government, if not majority government, but there is clearly no guarantee of that, either. At the same time, his continued support for Michael Matheson, justified or not, does not look good - and the SNP probably needs some new west coast ferries put into service and some sort of a conclusion to the party finances investigation and, perhaps, court case, before it’s chances of retaining power at Holyrood improve to any great extent.

Addendum. On the day I wrote my first draft of the above, two new factors came to light. Rather than try to adjust the body of the article I decided that it would be easier to produce this update (note that the end of the previous chapter was roughly where I originally intended to end this post).
Firstly, Nicola Sturgeon had an article published in which she claimed that she resigned as SNP leader and First Minister due to the abuse she was receiving because of the GRB. I have no sympathy for her. Around the time of her resignation she was attempting to get her driving licence. It was revealed that she only just passed her theory test - with a not very good score on the ‘hazard awareness’ section. This does not surprise me. I would suggest that she should have seen the abuse she would get about this policy if she’d had any sense of danger about anything. I would suggest that it was her arrogance that led her to think that she would not have serious opposition regarding what is a very contentious issue. Apart from that, she should have, in my view, been more dedicated to increasing support for independence rather than making a battle out of a social issue which could have been left until after independence. At the very least, she could have listened to the objectors and watered down what was proposed such that a compromise of some sort was reached (which could always have been strengthened later). But, as always, Sturgeon refused to listen to anything but her own views. In addition to that, I suspect that Sturgeon does not know what the word compromise means. I want to be very clear: For years independence supporters looked upon Sturgeon as some sort of guru - but I never did, especially after about 2017. In my view, Sturgeon is about 95% to blame for the collapse of support in the SNP - the other 5% down to the opposition parties trying to blackmail the SNP into dropping all attempts to hold IndyRef2 (and even then Sturgeon did not have to embark on the official deal with he Green Party).
Secondly, a YouGov poll was published which indicated that Labour in Scotland now have a 10 point lead over the SNP when it comes to Westminster voting intentions. I find such a huge increase in support for Labour, over just a few weeks, to be most surprising and unlikely. Still, Yousaf’s handing of the BHA and his forced resignation, along with no contest for his replacement, has perhaps made things look even worse for the SNP than it was before? I still feel that Swinney has done a good job, so far, and is making all the right sounds and moves such that this position can be recovered. There is maybe not enough time for this before the general election is upon us but there is hopefully sufficient time to do so before the 2026 Holyrood elections.
Second addendum. In another twist of fate (or whatever), on the very day I composed the above addendum, Richi Sunak announced, as I mentioned near the start of this post, that a UK general election would be held on July 4th. This, I have to admit, is a lot sooner than I expected one to be called. This does not really change any of the above but it certainly and greatly, in my view, reduces the chances of John Swinney reversing the fortunes of the SNP before this election takes place. I, therefore, more than before, fear that the SNP will lose many, many Westminster seats at this coming general election. I still believe that Swinney has plenty of time to reverse the SNP’s poll ratings before the next Holyrood elections - but that, of course, will depend upon how well he and the Scottish government performs between now and then. Having said that, there is one thing I feel the SNP could do to immediately improve their chances of retaining a large number of Westminster seats. There is, on top of that, a couple of points I believe the SNP needs to  emphasise more strongly.
Firstly, I believe that the SNP need to make it crystal clear that they will vote with Labour MPs to ensure that the Tories are not returned to office after July 4th - and this without any immediate conditions being attached. This may not be needed if Labour win their expected, overall majority - but there is always the chance that a majority of this size will not be achieved and that Labour will require the support of other parties, including the SNP, to be able to form a government.
What would such a declaration achieve? While the SNP have lost the confidence of many in Scotland, it does not strike me that there is any greater confidence in the Labour Party. It strikes me that many who previously voted SNP, but now intend to vote Labour, are only going to do so in order to get the Tories out of office. If it’s clear that the SNP are going to support Labour, if they have to, in getting the Tories kicked out, then there is no need to vote Labour for only that reason (as the SNP MPs will vote exactly the same way, on this issue, as any Scottish Labour MPs would vote).
What points do I feel the SNP need to emphasise? I believe the SNP need to point out, again and again, that voting Labour is no long term solution to Scotland’s problems. Over recent times, Starmer has moved the Labour Party further and further to the right (just as Blair did). Is that because he is now spouting what he actually believes or has he only done so to capture the votes of as many in England as possible? If the former then a right wing Labour government might stay in office for a couple of parliaments - but it will do no better than the Tories in helping to change Scotland’s fortunes. If Starmer’s government turns out to be more left of centre (than he is making out) then it will probably be thrown out of office after a single parliamentary term - and probably not have enough time to introduce the changes needed. A Labour government of any shade will be better than the Tories - but neither shade will provide the long term solutions and policies that Scotland need to pursue in order to begin sorting it’s many problems.
At the very least, the Scottish government need to see devolution strengthened and I very much doubt that even a Labour government will attend to this without serious pressure from a large group of SNP MPs. If Labour ends up with a large, overall majority then they will probably ignore even a large group of SNP MPs but the more SNP MPs there are then the more difficult it will be for Labour to gain that overall majority. The SNP need to work on what might be achieved with a strong showing - not what the worst case scenario might be.
In short, the SNP need to say to the Scottish electorate that if they want to see the Tories removed from office along with a long term solution to Scotland’s problems then that will only be achieved by voting for the SNP - which might, at least, bring about a strengthening of devolution. Devolution has been good for Scotland but not great. There is little point in having a left of centre Scottish government when a right wing UK government’s policies simply prevent the Scottish government from achieving what it was voted in to achieve. Devolution needs strengthened in order to prevent such Westminster spoiling tactics in the future - and only a strong representation of SNP MPs at Westminster could help bring this about.

The above might help the SNP avoid the worst of both worlds but let us consider what would happen should the SNP take a hammering at the Westminster election and also lose control of Holyrood in 2026. The unionists will, of course, be dancing in the streets for weeks if that were to happen - but they would be making a mistake to do so. The struggle for independence will have been put back but it will not have been destroyed. When I was much younger just about no-one believed that Scotland could succeed as an independent country (we’d been brainwashed into believing that Scotland was too poor, and that Scots were too stupid, for independence to be viable) but today around 50% of Scotland’s population want independence and there will be those who oppose it who now accept that independence would not be a disaster in an economic sense (they just don’t want to see the UK broken up). This optimistic outlook (about Scotland’s viability) comes more from the younger citizens than it does from the older ones - which could well suggest that support for independence will only increase over the years to come - as long as the independence parties get and keep their act together and promote independence in the positive way it needs and deserves - and keep well clear of extreme and radical policies.
I would suggest that there is only one thing that will end the struggle for independence for a long, long time - and that is a federal UK that gives Scotland full control over it’s finances and immigration. Only then will Scotland be able to; rebuild the country after the last few decades of economic vandalism (particularly since Thatcher and then a hard BREXIT); provide all the social services and infrastructure that the people of Scotland want and demand and; encourage people to come to work and live in Scotland (which will help to rebuild the economy and increase tax income for the government). A UK Labour government might be able to achieve all of that - but not a right wing one under Keir Starmer (unless he drastically changes course).