Scottish politics - the 2024 general election and the fall of the SNP

 On the night of July 4th I went to bed about 23:00, shortly after seeing the general election exit poll. This was the first time in about sixty plus years I hadn’t stayed up until about 06:00 watching the results roll in. Why go to bed early, this time? Well, it was pretty clear what the outcome was going to be and while very happy that the Tories were going to be well and truly kicked out of office, I also didn’t want to sit and watch the SNP lose seat after seat (which they did). Also, any joy that the Tories would be taking a beating was balanced by what appeared to be a very right wing Labour Party - which, from what it was saying, was going to be far away from the left wing Labour Party I’d have welcomed. But that indicates one of the reasons why I support Scottish independence; in UK terms, the Labour Party can only get into power by going to the right (just like Blair did) - and this time that was against a Tory government increasingly disliked by even the majority in England. Joy, in other words, seeing Tory after Tory lose their seat but no joy at each Labour win and definitely no joy at each SNP loss. So, on balance, just going to bed seemed the best option. As predicted in a previous post, the Labour Party, and particularly Scottish Labour, are ecstatic about their win and Scottish Labour are now predicting that they will win back control at Holyrood in 2026. They might well do so. A lot will depend upon how the SNP, and the independence movement in general, responds to this hammering. Scottish Labour would do well, however, to keep in mind that support for independence remains around the 50% mark. What the general election exposed was that the SNP had lost the support of the majority of the Scottish electorate - and we would do well to examine all the factors that caused that.

Firstly, many, many people were desperate to see the Tories kicked out of power and voting Labour seemed the best way to achieve that. In addition, the SNP had had around, or over, fifty MPs at Westminster for many years - and achieved nothing with regards to bringing independence closer. Why vote for any of them to go back there, especially when voting Labour would, at least, see the Tories out - and there’d be no real loss of influence if no SNP MPs were returned? The only situation where SNP MPs might achieve influence would be if a winning Labour Party needed the support of the SNP to win office (that is, most seats won but not a majority). This was clearly not going to be the situation in this election, given that a Labour landslide had been predicted for weeks and all opinion polls agreed about this.

A second factor, as mentioned above, was the SNP lost the trust of those who had previously voted for it. Why was that? There are many reason for this but it was down to a sequence of scandals, fiascos and gaffes. I will list as many of these that I can remember at the end of this post (appendix 1). I would argue that the SNP has achieved a lot since first elected in 2007 and it has improved the lives of many people and helped many more survive years of Tory austerity - but it’s all the negative aspects, like those listed below, that people remember and judge you on, especially since many of those negative aspects have all been in recent years. I have to admit that I would have stopped voting SNP had the SNP not been the only viable route to independence.

The question remains: is the SNP a spent force in Scottish politics or can it recover from it’s current troubles and retain control at the 2026 Holyrood elections? The brief answer to that is that it could go either way. A lot will depend on how the party regroup and how well it governs between now and those elections. A lot also depends upon how the Labour Party at Westminster performs - and if it actually carries out major reforms to the running of the UK, and if it strengthens devolution and the powers of the Scottish government such that a future Tory government (and they will be back) will find if very difficult to prevent a Scottish government carrying out left of centre policies (which is what the previous Tory government did for the past fourteen years). Unless the new Labour government at Westminster transforms the UK into a federation (or a close facsimile of this) then support for independence will stay around the 50% mark, and a strong independence campaign could well see this level of support increase further. If the SNP has ‘shot it’s bolt’ then the support for independence will remain with, perhaps, Alba becoming the party to spearhead this (although I believe a broader movement, not led by any single party, is required).
To be clear, I have absolutely no faith that the Westminster Labour government will come anywhere near transforming the UK into a federation. I have very little faith that it will improve and strengthen devolution in such a way that future Tory wrecking attempts can be prevented. Finally, I have 100% faith that the Tory Party will be back in office in five to ten years time and any improvements Labour might meanwhile have made will be reversed as quickly as the Tories can manage. Labour may make improvements to the running of the UK for a few years - but it is no long term solution to Scotland’s needs.
Having said all that, I genuinely hope that the new Labour government is very successful at reversing all the damage caused to the UK’s economy and social cohesion by fourteen years of Tory destruction, cruelty and vandalism. It cannot, however, bring about all the changes I’d be wanting to stop me supporting independence. Even if a federal UK was created that still wouldn’t stop the likes of a future Brexit with Scotland being forced down a road it did not want to travel on. In addition to that, and as said above, Labour will be out of office within a period of years with someone like Suella Braverman (or Kemi Badenoch or Priti Patel or even Nigel Farage) becoming Prime Minister. I wouldn’t actually set some of those Tories on alight but I find all of them so despicable that I would not piss on them if they were on fire. There is only one way for Scotland to avoid such a fate long term - and that is independence. The basic problem is the population of England vastly outnumbers the population of Scotland and the outlook of the people in England is mainly right wing while in Scotland it’s mainly left wing. That means Scotland can never get what it votes for as, to get into office, the Labour Party has to swing to the right to win enough English votes.



Appendix 1 - A list of the SNP’s scandals, fiascos and gaffes.

1) The Ferguson/Calmac ferry fiasco - still ongoing with huge financial overrun and delays in getting the ships into service.
2) The Derek MacKay scandal caused by him texting a sixteen year old boy. Not a crime in Scotland but still a very bad look for him and the SNP.
3) The Margaret Ferrier issue when she ignored COVID restrictions on travel. Nicola Sturgeon did act quickly on this but the fact that Ferrier did not resign her seat also looked bad for the SNP (as the SNP had selected her in the first place).
4) There was the Bute House agreement with the Green Party. This pleased many people but, I suspect, it displeased even more than it pleased. For many this resulted in the SNP being forced to pursue extreme or radical policies while seemingly ignoring the bread and butter issues people were struggling to cope with. This also appeared as if it was the Green’s tail wagging the SNP’s dog.
5) There was the Gender Recognition Bill (GRB). The UK government eventually halted it’s progress. There is much to say about this issue so see below, after this list, for a more lengthy and detailed opinion (appendix 2).
6) There was increasing disquiet amongst SNP members about the way Sturgeon and her husband ran and controlled the SNP as if it was their own, personal political party. This eventually led to the party splitting and the Alba party being formed. Again, not a good look for the SNP.
7) The Deposit Return Scheme (DRS). Again a good idea but pushed through, despite many objections, at least from businesses. The UK government eventually halting it, like the GRB, as they felt it went against the internal markets legislation it had introduced.
8) There was the Highly Protected Marine Areas (HPMA) proposal which would have severely restricted all sorts of marine activity, including swimming, in the designated locations. The SNP had proposed consultations but this plan was seen as the SNP seeking to impose what it (or the Greens) wanted against objections from many. As far as I can recall, the SNP halted this one itself - but it looked like it had been forced into a U turn. Another sign of SNP government incompetence.
9) Sturgeon steps down. There is an SNP leadership election in which Kate Forbes attacks Humza Yousaf in such a way that suggests Scottish Labour are correct in their attacks on the SNP government. Again, not a good look for the SNP.
10) The scandal about the SNP finances comes to light. It appears that over £600,000 of SNP money, via contributions from party members and supporters, is missing. Sturgeon, her husband and treasurer all arrested and then let go - before Sturgeon's husband, Peter Murrell, was eventually charged. Still no outcome to the case and another issue which does not leave the SNP looking good. It looks to me that there must either be criminal behaviour somewhere - or incompetence involved.
11) Then there were the deleted WhatsApps messages, relating to the COVID outbreak, which came to light during the COVID enquiry. I am quite happy to believe that Sturgeon and other ministers believed relevant messages had all been copied across to the government database - but I also understand the point that no-one can now ever be certain of that. Again, a whiff of incompetence.
12) Then there is the Michael Matheson scandal where he tried to offload an £11k roaming bill onto the parliament (public funds), claiming this was all work related when it was actually used to watch live Scottish football. During this process he lied to parliament. Another example of not a good look for the SNP.
13) Finally, shortly after becoming First Minister, John Swinney tried to use a technicality in the hope that Matheson would manage to avoid the punishment imposed on him by the parliament. There is a strong argument that Matheson should have had to face a new election in his constituency. Again, not a good look for the SNP or John Swinney.


Appendix 2 - The Gender Recognition Bill in more detail.

Although the GRB was approved by the Scottish parliament as a whole, it was not supported by many women’s groups or the Scottish electorate, in general - especially the extent to which Sturgeon wanted to take it. Sturgeon ignored all objections and forced it through - which badly damaged Sturgeon’s standing with the Scottish public and you could say she lost their trust from this point onwards (or, at least, started to). All the good work Sturgeon had generated, due to her handling of the COVID pandemic, was quickly destroyed because of this issue. Sturgeon was seen by many as irreplaceable and why many voted SNP - and this issue started to turn this worship around.
In a recent article/interview, Sturgeon claimed that one of the reasons she stepped down was because of the online abuse targeted at her because of her stance on the GRB. I have no sympathy for her. Not too long ago, while seeking to get her driving licence, it was reported that she had barely passed the theory part of the test - with her ‘hazard awareness’ being only just acceptable. I, for one, am not surprised about this. I would suggest that arrogant people often fail to recognise hazards (because they see themselves as unable to be wrong about anything). If Sturgeon had had any ‘hazard awareness’ then she would have seen that what she was trying to force through was bound to attract huge and angry objections. Maybe some were overreacting but many women feared they were going to lose the hard fought right to have safe, secure ‘women only’ spaces - so they were not happy with what they saw as those protections being removed. While I’m ‘happy’ to make life easier for trans people (or any minority) I simply cannot agree that people who still have a fully functional male body should be allowed into female only spaces just because they claim to identify as a woman. A different matter if those individuals elect to have their ‘bits’ removed - but not before that (and even then there are reasonable arguments against this exception). I sadly suspect that there are more women afraid of male violence than there are trans women and it strikes me as plain wrong to please a small number of individuals just to cut a larger number adrift. Some times life is hard and there is no perfect answer, and in that case we should take the line of least harm - or the fewest number negatively affected.
The other side of the above coin is that some (many?) voted SNP simply because they saw Sturgeon as some sort of a goddess - and when Sturgeon stepped down then the support for the SNP also fell as Sturgeon was no longer it’s leader. So Sturgeon ignoring pubic opinion lost the SNP votes - but so too did her stepping down as First Minister. What could be described as a double whammy.