Current affairs - Scottish politics (the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election)

As an SNP voter and member, I was, as I'm sure you will fully understand, very disappointed in the outcome of the June 5th by-election in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse. This especially since just about all the recent Scottish opinion polls showed the Labour Party's vote collapsing, compared to the UK general election of almost exactly a year ago, while support for the SNP was seen to be recovering. There are, however, a few a silver linings - if very thin ones.

 In the general election of just over a year ago, the Labour Party totally trounced the SNP, including in the Hamilton area, but on June 5th it was a very close race with Labour shading it by only about 500 votes. The Labour vote, compared to a year ago, was well down, no doubt due to the Labour UK government carrying out Tory policies (like not getting rid of the two child cap and removing the winter fuel payment for many pensioners who actually needed it) instead of increasing income tax for the more well off. Doing that could have raised as much, if not more, as hitting the poor will. On the other hand, the SNP vote had substantially recovered - just insufficiency so. However, there's still nearly a year until the next Holyrood elections and sufficient time for the SNP to bring about a fuller recovery - especially if it can at least clearly improve some of the current serious problems, like NHS waiting times. As well as getting to grips with the country’s problems, I feel the SNP, not the Scottish government, need to do more to sell independence. Start to outline, without making promises, what an independent Scotland could look like (what it could achieve) and point out, time and time again, that it will only be via independence that those improvements can be achieved (not to mention no longer having to worry about the likes of Thatcher or Johnston being our Prime Minister).

 Another silver lining (if you're an SNP supporter) is that, by all accounts, Labour totally swamped the constituency with campaign workers from many other areas around Scotland. The SNP may have run a decent campaign but it would appear that Labour really pulled out all the stops. Such a concentration of effort will pay dividends - but that won't be possible come the Holyrood elections next year as those campaigners will have to stick to working in their own areas.

 Yet another silver lining is that although Reform did much better than I hoped it would it still only came third - and there are grounds to hope that it will not do as well come the Holyrood elections. I may well be wrong but I suspect that the bulk of the Reform vote came from those dissatisfied with their usual party. Some have switched from the Tories because they feel Reform now more suits their right wing and racist views. Other have switched from Labour due to it's Tory policies (although why switch to Reform if that's the case?) and still others have switched from the SNP due to it's seeming failures over the past few years. Some of those supposed failures cannot be argued about while others are lies and exaggerations from it's opponents. Those switching from the Tories are liable to stay with Reform but those switching from Labour and the SNP were more likely making a protest vote with a good chance of switching back come those Holyrood elections.

There's also a good chance that many decided to protest by just not coming out to vote and a good performance by the Scottish government over the coming months might just persuade more of them to come out and vote SNP next year.

However, if I was a betting man (which I'm not) would I put any money on the SNP retaining power at Holyrood next year? On balance, I'm afraid I wouldn't. I suspect we might end up with totally split parliament but, at the moment, I wouldn't like to say which party will come out the largest.

On the negative side, we also have to consider that the rise of Reform, even in Scotland, is a genuine change in the outlook on immigration. I sense that there has been an increase in the objection to immigrants over about ten years (keep in mind that Scotland voted, by a large majority, to stay in the EU with the freedom of movement policy). I feel that this is down to Scots being seduced by all the media hoo-ha about the large number of boats/people crossing the English channel. In general, Scotland does not have serious problem with immigration and in fact needs more immigration to help cover areas like the NHS waiting times, the care sector, house building and the hospitality and tourist sectors. The extra income tax a larger population would generate would also help pay for all the above. As well as trying to stop the gangs which run those people smuggling operations, I think it would be a good idea to determine why so many are fleeing certain countries (War? Famine? Climate change?) and look to see if there is anything the West can do to assist in resolving whatever the problems are such that fewer people seek to escape to Europe and the UK. Another potential solution would be to build more houses, schools, hospitals, doctor’s surgeries and transport links. All of that, I believe, would much reduce the anger that has developed over immigration as it's often the stress on services that produces racism: get rid of that stress and the incidence of racist views will, I believe, at least lessen.