Scottish politics - The 2026 Holyrood elections and the SNP

Over the weekend following the Holyrood elections, a friend sent me a text saying that the word he had heard most, regarding the low turnout, was "scunnered". I've since heard/read that the turnout was only low compared to the 2021 election but, at the same time, I definitely get a sense that many people, particularly previous Labour and SNP voters, were indeed scunnered. I think that those scunnered with the SNP were not scunnered for the same reasons as those who were scunnered with Labour. Those feeling that way towards Labour, I'd guess, felt this way because of the performance of Starmer and Reeves over the past two years (after thinking they'd reached the promised land politically speaking). Those previous SNP voters (who maybe didn’t vote or voted for another party) were, I think, scunnered for a range of reasons. I’ve listed as many of those reasons as I can think of at the foot of this post (just so no-one feels forced to read all of it here).

However, regardless of whys, it is clear that if it had not been for the ‘scunnered’ Labour voters turning away, along with the (sad) growth of Reform UK, then the SNP might well not have won the election at all, never mind the landslide it got. In other words, Swinney and the SNP have a lot of work to do to turn that last result around and into a genuine victory in 2031.

I pray, that in pursuit of this, Swinney does not do another deal with the Greens. I'm happy if he agrees to some of the things they want (when they match with SNP aims) to get major policies and budgets passed - but no more than that. In government the Greens moved from cooperation to attempted blackmail - and that was what caused Humza Yousaf's downfall, and that only added to the disquiet following Sturgeon’s last couple of years as First Minister.

My hopes for the next few years? I still think Swinney has done a decent job in steadying the ship but he is hardly inspiring. I hope he leads a prudent government with left of centre policies to help people deal with the various cost of living pressures – but without promising too much. Promising too much can often come back to bite when those promises fail to be achieved. Meanwhile, I see Flynn getting his feet under the table and, perhaps, starting to lead the campaign to promote the potential benefits of independence. Then, in a couple of years time, Swinney steps down and is replaced by Flynn. We would then have, once again, a dynamic leader who might be able to bring back the enthusiasm of the years leading up to, and just after, the independence referendum.

List of potential reasons for SNP voters being ‘scunnered’.

1 - The ferry fiasco number 1 (the Glen Sannox and the Glen Rosa mess). The SNP government were not totally to blame for this but it was very certainly complicit in some very bad decisions.

2 - The pursuit of what can be considered the Green’s agenda (the gender recognition bill, the HPMA proposal (very unpopular in rural, coastal areas), the deposit return scheme, the proposal to ban wood burning stoves (very unpopular in rural areas), the proposal to charge motorists £2/mile (also very unpopular in rural areas) along with other, radical, ideas).

3 - Conversely, the failure to get any of the above into law (as some radical and environmentally leaning supporters might have been annoyed about this).

4 - The missing party funds scandal.

5 - Sturgeon’s resignation (because she was still popular with many – if not all). There were some SNP voters who were only voting SNP because they just about worshipped Sturgeon.

6 - The fall in education standards (although this is not as bad as our opponents try to make out).

7 - The financial problems within the university sector. This was/is partly caused by the SNP’s insistence of free tuition fees for Scottish students and Brexit driving away the foreign, paying students.

8 - The financial problems with our colleges. This, I suspect, is down to the free university tuition policy for universities. In other words, the SNP seem to have abandoned the very important college sector in favour of the university sector.

9 - Overcrowding in our prisons, followed by the early release of prisoners. The building of a couple of extra prisons over the past twenty years could have avoided this – but that would have taken money to build, staff and run.

10 - The struggles of the NHS (particularly waiting times at A&E or to get an operation). This is unfair as fourteen years of Tory austerity and BREXIT have been responsible for a lot of this.

11 - The ferry fiasco number 2 (the number of ships developing faults and having to be taken out of service due to them not having been replaced years ago - and almost certainly why the SNP lost the Western Isles). In many ways this is also unfair given the fourteen years of Tory austerity and the number of ships already delivered or under construction or at the planning stage – but when in government then you carry the blame when things go wrong.

12 - The lack of affordable homes available, either being built or already built, and the number of homeless people. Again, unfair blaming the SNP as Tory austerity is also an issue here (it takes money to build houses). Also an issue with this is BREXIT as increased numbers have come across from Europe – and we have no EU deal to help prevent this. If we are going to have numbers coming into the country, legal or illegal, and needing assistance, then we need proper, decent accommodation built, or provided, until all applications have been dealt with – and all those cases need to be dealt with faster than was the case under the Tories. On top of all of that we still suffer from Thatcher’s right to buy nonsense which has basically impoverished councils over the past forty to fifty years.

13 - Teacher numbers falling (class sizes increasing). Again not totally the fault of the SNP as it takes money to train and pay teachers – and Westminster cuts made that more difficult.

14 - Police numbers falling. Again, lack of money from Westminster did not help that.

15 - The deal Sturgeon did with the Greens right at the start of the last parliament – which I felt at the time was madness and likely only to lead to problems (which it did). For me, it gave the Greens power to demand things more than just agreeing over individual policies would have done – and towards the end the Greens threatened to use that power.

16 - The seeming failure to deal with immediate issues of concern to the public while concentrating on those radical Green policies which the majority of the public just did not care about or even, in some cases, were opposed to (while Sturgeon pushed on regardless).

17 - The total lack of any meaningful campaign designed to increase support for independence. That is, trying to explain what could be achieved with independence that’s currently impossible or, at least, very difficult as a part of the UK (or even within devolution).

The above are just a few of the issues which I’m sure greatly reduced the number voting SNP on May 7^th 2026 – and there might well be other issues I’ve missed or forgotten about. Such a long list may make you wonder why I still support the SNP but, as pointed out, a lot of the above stem from a reduced budget, over fourteen years, from Westminster. Westminster is where the Scottish government, of whatever colour, gets the bulk of it’s money from – and when that is cut then what the Scottish government can do is accordingly reduced. It’s also worth keeping in mind that the SNP in itself is not the solution. The SNP is only the means to reaching that solution – and the only route unless you support armed revolt (which I most certainly do not). To achieve that goal then the SNP needs to be the government and that means having political policies to follow. It is bound to be the case that each of us disagree with some policies and it’s also bound to be the case that some policies just don’t work as it’s hoped they will. My argument is that we need to stick with the SNP until, at least, independence is achieved – after that we can then switch support the party that more closely resembles your own political outlook.

Finally, my apologises to anyone who has bothered to read this as it’s a pretty incoherent post. I was in a bit of a rush to finish it as I didn’t want too much time to have passed since the election before publishing. As a result I’ve done a lot less in the way of rewording bits that I’d normally not be satisfied with.